Almost every day we read mainstream media articles claiming assured destruction due to “climate change.” Each article identifies studies and reports from which statements of possible outcome are selectively pulled, some of which are then stated as fact. What is not stated is that, as with virtually every scientific study and report across every discipline, there is a continuum of possible outcomes ranging from “virtually nothing” on one extreme to “total disaster” on the other.
The problem with this selective presentation of information is that millions upon millions of people who rely on limited or solitary sources of information are now convinced that the world is about to come to an end due to climate change. This includes politicians, social activists, educators, people in business and the average citizen.
What they all need to do is read Dr. Steven E. Koonin, PhD’s book, Unsettled? What Climate Science tells us, what it doesn’t, and why it matters.
Dr. Koonin has quite a pedigree. It’s impressive (which is why I’m including it at the beginning of this message). Here’s the summary from Wikipedia:
“Dr. Koonin received his Bachelor of Science from the California Institute of Technology and his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology under the supervision of Arthur Kerman in the MIT Center for Theoretical Physics.
“In 2004, Koonin joined British Petroleum (BP) as their chief scientist, where he was responsible for guiding the company’s long-range technology strategy, particularly in alternative and renewable energy sources. In 2009, he was appointed the U.S. Department of Energy’s second Senate-confirmed Under Secretary for Science serving from May 19, 2009, to November 18, 2011. He left that post in November 2011 for a position at the Institute for Defense Analyses. On April 23, 2012, Koonin was named director of NYU’s (New York University) Center for Urban Science and Progress (CUSP).
“He has served on numerous advisory bodies for the National Science Foundation, the Department of Defense, and the Department of Energy and its various national laboratories, such as the JASON defense advisory group.”
Now let’s talk about the book. Here’s an excerpt from the first page of the Introduction:
“(B)oth the research literature and government reports that summarize and asses the state of climate science say clearly that heat waves in the US are now no more common than they were in 1900, and that the warmest temperatures in the US have not risen in the past fifty years.”
That’s not what you hear from the media. Some mainstream media and those wanting to attain and/or maintain political power (coupled with business and industrial forces that stand to profit handsomely) present a continuing narrative that “The Science” about climate is “settled” and we are in “crisis.”
According to Dr. Koonin, nothing could be further from the truth.
He tells us that the computer models that are used to project the future are flawed. The models are not able to account for what we experienced in the early 1900s (when quality records started to become available). If the model cannot account for what has happened, how can it be relied on to predict what will happen. [By the way, “weather” – which is what we experience day to day – and “climate” are not the same. As much as some people would like you to believe the terms are interchangeable, they are not.]
He introduces us to the documented global cycles that impact our weather. Things like the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation which is a 60-to-80-year cycle. And the Pacific Decadal Oscillation which has a cycle length of 60 years or so. Scientists do not yet fully understand what causes these cycles. Nor have they repeated enough times since 1900 to thoroughly observe their impact on weather and climate. (By the way, he suggests there are other cycles that are hundreds and even thousands of years in length – well beyond living memory and/or accurate records.)
He also addresses the reports from the United Nations, United States and European Union scientific communities. We are led to believe they are unbiased and accurate. Unfortunately, that’s not necessarily the case.
This is just a taste of what’s covered in the book.
Please understand this: The Earth’s climate is changing. It has been changing since the day the planet was formed. We’ve had at least five major ice ages. According to the Utah Geological Survey, “At least five major ice ages have occurred throughout Earth’s history: the earliest was over 2 billion years ago, and the most recent one began approximately 3 million years ago and continues today (yes, we live in an ice age!). Currently, we are in a warm interglacial that began about 11,000 years ago…
“One significant trigger in initiating ice ages is the changing positions of Earth’s ever-moving continents, which affect ocean and atmospheric circulation patterns. When plate-tectonic movement causes continents to be arranged such that warm water flow from the equator to the poles is blocked or reduced, ice sheets may arise and set another ice age in motion.”
Do humans influence the Earth and its climate? Yes. Are we the dominant influence? Definitely not.
Is there a “climate crisis” that means our impending doom? Absolutely not.
There’s a difference between stewardship and fearmongering. The effort to instill fear about The Climate is misinformed at best and malicious at worst.
Read Dr. Koonin’s book. There are realistic, practical things humans can do to be better stewards of the environment, and as a result, mitigate our impact on climate. But ignorance and fear should not motivate our behavior.
One last point. Because the topic of climate is something most all of us know little about, there is a tendency to ascribe “truth” to what is reported by the media, spoken by politicians and printed in reports from government and/or academic circles. Michael Crichton (author of books like Jurassic Park and The Andromeda Strain) coined the phrase “The Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect.” He describes it this way:
“Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray’s case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the “wet streets cause rain” stories. Paper’s full of them.
“In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know.”
The point is, we need to take responsibility for learning the truth. We cannot allow ourselves to be swayed by pomposity, authoritarianism, fearmongering and deliberate misinformation. The facts are out there. You just need to go find them.
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